One of main issues in planning future power system expansion is forecast of expected electricity generating costs. Due to the fact that the forecast should be extended to plants lifetime it is best to consider and compare lifetime levelized cost of generated electricity for each of the candidate plants. The analysis is a part of studies for the future expansion of the Croatian power system, but is valid generally. The main competitors to nuclear power plants are combined cycle natural gas fired plants whose economy strongly depends upon gas cost. The expected increase of gas cost in following decades can substantially influence the competitiveness of nuclear plants versus gas fired plants. In addition, the costs of electricity produced by coal fired plants and wind electricity generators were also considered. Due to uncertainties of input parameters it is advantageous to use probabilistic instead of deterministic method of analysis. The paper considers the problem of the probabilistic distribution of nuclear power plant investment costs for which such plants could be competitive to gas fired plants for an estimated probable range of gas cost increase rates.

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